|33x growth in mobile traffic over next decade, predicts UMTS Forum|
11 May 2011: The UMTS Forum has predicted that voice and data traffic on mobile networks will grow more than 30-fold during the decade ahead.
In a new report titled “Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020 ”, the 3G/4G industry body indicates that total annual traffic on mobile networks globally will reach 127 EB (Exabytes) in 2020. This represents a 33x increase compared with the 2010 figure.
The report also predicts that growth will be stronger still in Europe. During the same period, the UMTS Forum estimates that mobile traffic in a typical Western European country will grow by 67x from 186 TB to 12,540 TB daily – double the corresponding growth globally.
In contrast with this explosive growth in data traffic during the decade, the study predicts that mobile voice traffic growth will remain limited during the same period.
Available in full to members of the UMTS Forum, “Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020” has been produced for the UMTS Forum by European analysis and consulting firm IDATE.
Key trends and drivers identified during the study period include:
The forecasted figures represent a total of uplink and downlink voice and data traffic transported on mobile networks using licensed spectrum. While traffic managed by femtocells is included in the study, the effects of Wi-Fi offload are explicitly not included. Similarly, the forecast does not take into account RFID traffic or any other traffic carried over unlicensed radio frequency bands.
This new report builds on previous UMTS Forum studies, taking account
of trends like smartphones and social networking via mobile.
Specifically, the forecasts accords closely with a 27x increase that
was forecasted by the UMTS Forum in 2005 – an era that preceded
smartphones, app stores and the mass availability of 3G ‘dongles’.
“Mobile traffic forecasts 2010-2020” was offered as a recent contribution by the UMTS Forum in the framework of global traffic forecasts conducted by ITU-R and CEPT/ECC. It will also be offered as a key input at the next World Radiocommunication Conferences (WRC-12 and WRC-15/16) – the so-called ‘Wireless Olympics’, where regulations governing the use of radio-frequency spectrum are reviewed.
“The ITU-R’s efforts in the past on IMT spectrum and technology have directly enabled the global success of mobile broadband”, states Bienaimé. “We have also seen that harmonised spectrum facilitates economies of scale, driving down pricing of mobile devices for consumers. Based on these new traffic forecasts, further actions in the ITU-R framework are now needed to meet traffic demand for the next 10 years”.
ABOUT THE UMTS FORUM
The UMTS Forum participates actively in the work of the ITU, EC, ETSI, 3GPP and CEPT as well as other technical and commercial organisations globally. It also contributes to the timely licensing and deployment of mobile broadband globally through regular dialogue with regulators and responses to public consultations.
The UMTS Forum supports the interests of its membership with a range of studies, reports and other outputs. Principal focus areas include markets trends, mobile broadband services and applications, key growth markets, spectrum & regulation, technology & implementation. A strong promotional voice is maintained via a high-profile presence at conferences, seminars and workshops as well as regular briefings to the media, analysts and other stakeholders.
Membership of the UMTS Forum draws together everyone with an interest in mobile broadband, including network operators, regulators and the manufacturers of network infrastructure and terminal equipment.
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