Saturday, 11 October 2008 
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2.1 Mobile market growth will continue to be strong

For the year 2010 Report 33 estimated a total daily traffic of 249 Tbyte (for a representative European country of 52.3 million users), which results in 4.8 Mbytes/users/day. Furthermore, Report 37 estimated for the year 2020 the total daily traffic to be 5744 Tbytes, which results in 495 Mbytes/users/day, see Figure 1.

Figure 1. Total estimated daily traffic and its distribution to different service categories for a representative Western European country: year 2012 versus 2020

The FMS (Future Mobile Service) study1 predicts that the total wireless traffic volume per user per day will increase substantially after year 2015. The study developed three potential future scenarios based on socio-economic principles:
  • Scenario 1: Smooth development – EU economies unite to provide constant growth and development in a fair and managed way that brings prosperity across all 27 members present in today.

  • Scenario 2: Economic stagnation – The EU economy slowly declines, as the Japanese economy did between 1998 and 2003. Outputs generally shrink and the reactions of government policy to strong deflation are unsuccessful or frozen.

  • Scenario 3: Constant change – Overall, the economy follows a moderately positive trend, with ups and downs. Ad hoc growth and recession often occur in parallel in different areas or countries. However, prosperity slowly increases for many in the EU.

Figure 2. Traffic estimates for FMS scenarios1


1 European Commission Directorate, General Joint Research Centre/Institute for Prospective Technological Studies (2005), The demand for future mobile communications markets and services in Europe (FMS study). Available at: http://fms.jrc.es/documents/FMS%20FINAL%20REPORT.pdf.



 
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