UMTS Forum Report 35, June 2004

Introduction

This Report provides the results of the mobile market analysis and forecast of the future market, based on internal and external studies, until the year 2020 as well as detailed data on the forecast of mobile penetration in the world.

This document is structured in four main parts:

• The Status of the Mobile Communication penetration in 2002
  This part describes the mobile penetration level reached end 2002 in the world as reported by ITU.

• The main sociological, social and economical trends and related indicators
  This part describes the general trends envisaged by international bodies such the UN, the world bank, and proposed 4 indicators to quantify per country the impact of these trends.

• Penetration forecast methodology
  This part describes a methodology to forecast the penetration of mobile per country using the current figures, the reference indicators. In order to obtain a single methodology applicable to all countries in the world, the countries are segmented in 6 categories.

• World mobile user base forecast.
  This part establishes forecasts of mobile user base, per country (with details per geographical environment) using the methodology and parameters described above.